Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 29.876541 32.251549 34.827331 37.846866 41.313703 45.199313 4.992639e+01
2025-03-23 26.590953 29.812827 33.536896 38.227201 44.078205 51.282969 6.107461e+01
2025-03-30 24.181114 27.765289 32.081384 37.785851 45.331785 55.302472 7.011777e+01
2025-04-06 22.499516 26.306257 31.037371 37.534717 46.555700 59.224315 7.965566e+01
2025-04-13 20.667924 24.454123 29.259520 36.033328 45.762387 60.043626 8.456367e+01
2025-04-20 20.046396 24.069739 29.311491 36.949995 48.418332 66.293537 9.985645e+01
2025-04-27 19.175250 23.275956 28.724228 36.867975 49.528324 70.250978 1.122866e+02
2025-05-04 18.921633 23.274825 29.199571 38.342308 53.208463 79.190367 1.380478e+02
2025-05-11 18.297278 22.716454 28.834043 38.493157 54.728283 84.567446 1.585886e+02
2025-05-18 17.978461 22.555405 29.015031 39.488318 57.797947 93.602613 1.937662e+02
2025-05-25 17.204807 21.703981 28.119185 38.669755 57.516682 95.690219 2.105395e+02
2025-06-01 16.161494 20.420591 26.511686 36.571326 54.656812 91.678503 2.056167e+02
2025-06-08 15.046471 19.085859 24.904910 34.614207 52.347244 89.618866 2.111819e+02
2025-06-15 14.577374 18.674547 24.687560 34.990017 54.605649 98.912049 2.703680e+02
2025-06-22 13.982034 18.038479 24.071636 34.610337 55.309149 104.762139 3.268139e+02
2025-06-29 13.481097 17.510934 23.582681 34.392576 56.297959 111.795333 4.081563e+02
2025-07-06 12.794970 16.669969 22.542244 33.086943 54.762255 111.212924 4.407990e+02
2025-07-13 12.595808 16.553950 22.653446 33.884632 57.977272 126.330265 6.745581e+02
2025-07-20 12.242325 16.181601 22.319525 33.813327 59.202399 135.821387 9.499954e+02
2025-07-27 12.162692 16.226717 22.674908 35.093054 63.933607 161.273949 2.263163e+03
2025-08-03 11.884873 15.945442 22.459568 35.223752 65.825751 177.224401 5.500626e+03
2025-08-10 11.745594 15.875887 22.599538 36.084871 69.866676 207.294216 1.495818e+07
2025-08-17 11.365848 15.403518 22.011136 35.376703 69.409209 214.013548 NaN